Output Gap

  

Categories: Metrics, International

Does your economy feel sluggish in the morning? Is your economy not fulfilling its full potential? Maybe it’s suffering from output gap.

An economy’s output gap is actual GDP minus potential GDP.

Potential schmotenial...how can we even tell what an economy’s potential is? Well, a man named Okun figured it out. We look at unemployment, particularly the segment of unemployed people who want jobs but are having trouble getting them (people who aren’t looking for jobs don’t count).

All that “I wish I was making money, but I still am failing all of these phone interviews” effort is going to economic waste. The output gap is an estimate, since our potential GDP is also based off of an estimate.

Ideally, the output gap is zero. A negative output gap means the economy is not fulfilling its economic potential. A positive output gap sounds like it’d be a good thing, but it’s not. Positive output gap means there’s more demand than supply, which means inflation, inflation, and more inflation.

See: Okun’s Law.

Related or Semi-related Video

Econ: What are National Savings?1 Views

00:00

And finance Allah shmoop What Our national savings The term

00:07

national savings refers to the total of all private and

00:11

public savings in a country All the money socked away

00:15

for you know that rainy day you get your monthly

00:17

paycheck you pay your rent you buy food and shell

00:21

up cash for your utilities your Internet service your phone

00:24

a few trips to the go kart track and maybe

00:27

buy your mom flowers for her birthday Well at the

00:29

end of the month you have twelve dollars seventeen cents

00:31

a left That goes into your savings account the same

00:35

starter savings account you first opened when you were twelve

00:38

Well that twelve dollars seventeen cents also gets counted in

00:41

the national savings total Well your twelve dollars seventeen cents

00:45

gets added to the one hundred million dollars or so

00:48

that a hedge fund manager made and paid himself for

00:51

basically pushing people's money around and taking a big fat

00:54

fee for it So he keeps that money That's his

00:56

savings And then you have all the other money saved

00:59

by people in companies and governments in the country They

01:01

all get added up All of that dough is totaled

01:04

two comprise the national savings well in practice The national

01:07

savings figure isn't calculated by adding everyone's bank accounts Jeff

01:12

Bezos Finances are much more complicated than those in York

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you know junior savings account which still entitles you to

01:18

a lollypop with every deposit It might be hard to

01:21

get a firm grasp on just how much money Bezos

01:24

has saved a pay for the eventual vacation community on

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the moon he plans to build with Ellen Moscow actually

01:30

may be the new one is going to be built

01:31

on Mars What do you think Well getting those savings

01:34

numbers may be difficult to get Teo because well for

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Bezos and Musk most of their wealth is in stock

01:39

It hasn't been converted to cash savings so it just

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sits there and it goes up with the market or

01:44

a little better than the market these days anyway Meanwhile

01:46

other people are burying cash in Mason jars in the

01:49

backyard In case you know the zombie apocalypse comes back

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and all the bank's just go away or shut down

01:55

we're getting a good estimate on these totals in total

01:58

savings numbers is difficult So instead of adding up all

02:01

the savings account totals National savings is calculated a different

02:05

way Instead the figure is computed by taking the amount

02:08

of money people earn in a period when just subtracting

02:11

the amount they spend Yes very clever Well people either

02:14

spend or save their money That's the assumption here What

02:17

they didn't spend well they must have saved right Well

02:20

in terms of an equation national savings equals disposable personal

02:25

income minus personal consumption expenditures That's the big equation Well

02:30

disposable personal income represents the amount left over in people's

02:33

paychecks after they pay their taxes The amount they have

02:36

available to spend or save is you know what's left

02:38

well Meanwhile personal consumption expenditures represent the spending total The

02:43

difference between the two Well that's what's been saved when

02:46

comparing country's national savings is given as a rate like

02:50

big countries will always have a big total for savings

02:53

but it doesn't mean that they're good at saving So

02:56

to compare you need to compute a rate of savings

02:59

So for that computation to take place you take the

03:01

amount saved and calculate the ratio of that number with

03:05

the country's GDP That figure then gives you the national

03:09

savings rate Some countries save a lot Others say very

03:12

little So you know on one end of the spectrum

03:15

you've got the Singapore here It had a national savings

03:18

rate of Yes forty six point five percent of GDP

03:21

in two thousand seventeen Close toe Half of the money

03:24

earned in the country went to savings on the other

03:27

end You've got grease Hello Bankrupt Greece Yes we feel

03:30

your shame Savings rate of only ten point nine percent

03:33

in two thousand seventeen Little over ten percent of the

03:35

money earned their got saved Meaning Just under ninety percent

03:38

of it got spent as soon as it arrived Well

03:41

the U S is a lot closer to Greece Sadly

03:44

on the list it's gross National savings rate told seventeen

03:47

and a half percent in two thousand seventeen And before

03:49

you start yelling at your family at the next Thanksgiving

03:51

about how they need to save more the low savings

03:54

rate is largely the government's fault Yes White House We're

03:57

looking at you National savings includes government figures Well part

04:01

of the issue for the U S is that the

04:03

federal government runs a heavy deficit mat number that spend

04:07

leaps into the overall savings rate for the country for

04:10

the federal government ran a deficit of six hundred sixty

04:13

five billion dollars in two thousand seventeen cost us a

04:16

fortune and it had taken off a lot of our

04:18

twelve dollars seventeen cent deposits into our junior savings account

04:22

Tio you know cancel all that huge government debt out

04:25

So what We just eat it That's it National savings

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