Odds of Hanging On
Totally depends on how well you do—and "well" is defined as what kind of negotiator you were on behalf of your constituents. That is, there'll be a perception after each new union contract about how well you assessed the power your workers had (i.e., for $11 million, could management have just replaced everyone with machines?).
Your performance will also be evaluated on a basis of what kind of concessions you fought for, in the form of pay raises, pension add-ons, and other benefits, like that thirty-two-hour work week the workers were demanding.